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Facebook set to overtake MySpace in the US within a month

Facebook passed MySpace in worldwide traffic a while ago, but MySpace has kept dominating the US market. Well, it looks like that is about to change really soon.

Within a month (or two at the most), if the current trend holds, Facebook will have more daily visitors than MySpace in the US according to Google Trends for Websites.

From where is Facebook getting its users?

It doesn’t look like MySpace is losing that much traffic, so it’s unlikely that its users are just jumping ship. Judging by the graph above, MySpace has remained more or less on the same level in the US for over a year while Facebook has kept growing steadily. And now they are finally about to catch up.

So, if MySpace traffic isn’t decreasing, from where is Facebook getting its users? As far as we here at Pingdom can tell based on our experience, there are four possibilities:

  • MySpace users sign up on Facebook but keep using MySpace, i.e. they become simultaneous users of both MySpace and Facebook.
  • Facebook is taking users away from MySpace, but at the same rate that MySpace is recruiting new users (which is why MySpace is neither gaining nor losing traffic overall).
  • Facebook is getting its users from other communities than MySpace.
  • Facebook is attracting completely new social network users, not taking them from other communities.

Of course these four points are all extremes and the truth is bound to be a combination of all four (and perhaps other options we didn’t consider), but it would be interesting to know which one is the most common.

Facebook has more than doubled its worldwide traffic in a year

From the look of it, worldwide traffic to Facebook has more than doubled in the last year, and that growth doesn’t seem to be slowing down at all:

What’s the key to Facebook’s growth spurt?

What do you think is the key (or keys) to Facebook’s rapid growth, both internationally and in the US?

And from where are those users coming? How are you and your friends using these communities?

Share your thoughts with us in the comments!



12 comments
Byrl Alexander
Byrl Alexander

I still like my space better than facebook, but I have a facebook account and twitter acount, but I don't check them every day. I do check myspace a few times a day. I am not knocking facebook, to each his own

Maggie
Maggie

Facebook is definitely a lot better than Myspace. It's not a surprise that it is ahead in the game!

myspacebackgrounds
myspacebackgrounds

Facebook is definitely the future. I like it but have some privacy concerns, though.

Nathan
Nathan

Well based on today's Alexa rank Facebook is ranked 5 where as Myspace is ranked number 8 so Facebook is ahead of the game :)

Jay work at home
Jay work at home

i think myspace is still ahead of the game, but facebook is almost surpassing them.

Andy
Andy

"Ghetto" is what MySpace is becoming ... or so the kids are saying. MySpace is as current as it can get without alienating people with slower browsers or small laptop computers with limited wifi options nearby (so I don't buy that Facebook is growing in popularity because it is supposedly more "advanced"). I don’t think it’s so much of an issue of MySpace staying ahead of the technological curve as much as it is staying open and accessible. Too many profiles are full of useless, sparkly crap and code-intensive doohickeys that make me wait two minutes just to read a vaccuous, abridged profile with no depth (other than what the person’s 100 favorite bands are). People have a view of MySpace being a "party site" and those users who take themselves seriously go to Facebook because it’s clean, uniform and fast to use. On Facebook you're likely to see someone's real name and an organized layout of information about that person. On MySpace, however, you'll be looking for Jenny Smith and never find her ... only to see days later that she changed her name to *~~*REQUIEM FOR A DREAM (I LOVE HIM!)*~~~*. Another thing: MySpace AND Facebook have caved in to pressure and have added "private profile" options to appease stalker-phobes and moral anarchists who like to live double lives in public and private. I think this has chisled away at the whole point of social networking, and turned both sites into a network of cliques rather than a worldwide "extended network." Private profiles have hurt MySpace, which relies on freedom of access more so than the ever-so-uniform Facebook.

Greg
Greg

I still prefer myspace

mekh
mekh

be interesting to see how weekly uniques compare

Svetlana Gladkova
Svetlana Gladkova

International growth must have quite a simple explanation: usually people choose to use one of the local social networks but they are rarely as advanced and offer the same functionality that Facebook itself offers - thus when they realize they want something with enhanced functionality they migrate from those local networks, at the same time bringing their friends in.

Ryan
Ryan

One reason, it's the crack of internet sites. I used to check my account every other day or a couple times a week, now I'm on facebook nearly every waking minute. Also, less spam/phishing on facebook compared to its peers.